Cost Analysis: Protecting the Grid and Electronics from an EMP

On the evening of September 1, 1859, a massive solar storm, now called the Carrington Event, struck Earth. Electrical currents from the storm disabled telegraph lines and ignited fires in telegraph offices. The aurora borealis was seen as far south as Cuba.

What if that type of solar storm happened today? Or, what if adversaries could create a similar effect using a nuclear detonation at the edge of space? As modern societies increasingly rely on electronics, they have become more vulnerable to the effects of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from a solar or manmade event. As nations electrify their critical infrastructure sectors and essential services, the cascading effects of a power grid disruption increase.

What Is an EMP, and Why Is It Catastrophic?

An EMP is a burst of electromagnetic energy of extreme intensity, such as radio waves or microwaves. Such a burst of electromagnetic energy is a serious threat to the electric grid. It can damage or destroy equipment that uses electricity over a wide area, causing a collapse of the grid and, consequently, the economy. Electromagnetic pulses can come from several sources.

The sun can produce electromagnetic events called geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), which occur often with various severity levels. A G-5 solar storm—a storm at the most extreme level according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) storm ranking—will damage transformers and electrical equipment over wide geographic areas.

To create a similar effect, adversaries can launch an electromagnetic attack using various methods such as an EMP weapon inside a vehicle, E-bombs, or drones. These electrically or chemically driven EMP weapons can disrupt or destroy electronics within several miles, disrupting specific communication systems, airports, data centers, military bases, and hospitals.

Nuclear explosions, especially those occurring at high altitudes, generate powerful EMPs. These pulses can damage or destroy electrical equipment over a wide area. A nuclear detonation 45 miles above Earth could disrupt or destroy electronic equipment over a 1,000-mile diameter, including electronics in critical infrastructure and financial processing centers. As a result, credit and debit cards would no longer work. The loss of this infrastructure could take years to repair. Such an event would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product by trillions of dollars and result in a significant loss of life as people struggle to survive without functioning infrastructure. An EMP attack would be comparable to an electronic hurricane hitting the whole country.

Since an EMP attack could cripple U.S. critical infrastructure (power grids, communication systems, transportation, etc.) without the immediate loss of life associated with a direct nuclear strike, nation states could use the threat of an EMP attack as a form of coercion or deterrence in international relations. Such a threat, by definition, has the potential for escalation, and even a limited EMP attack could lead to conflict.

Factors that Increase Risk

As non-nuclear EMP weapons proliferate, the likelihood of their use increases. At least twenty countries have E-bomb programs. For example, Iran is supplying E-bombs to terrorist organizations, such as Hezbollah.

To affect a large area—for instance, one of a 1,000-mile diameter—it is necessary to have both a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it to the upper atmosphere. Adversarial countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, and possibly Iran already have nuclear weapons. They also have the missile technology to place nuclear armed satellites in orbit, and to deliver nuclear weapons to the upper atmosphere above the target country.

How Does an EMP Affect Electrical Equipment?

An EMP affects electrical equipment in three ways. A solar storm can send currents through the ground. When they reach areas where the ground is less conductive, the currents flow into power lines and metal conductors until they reach conductive ground again. These currents create additional voltage on the grid, which can saturate transformers, causing them to overheat and fail.

The second way an EMP affects electronics is by causing a current surge and an associated voltage spike. The current surge is induced when the moving electric field from an EMP passes over power lines. As the current surge reaches equipment that uses electricity, it creates a large voltage spike.

The third way an EMP can affect electronics is through its radiated electric field as it passes through sensitive computer chips.

What Can Be Done to Protect Electronics From an EMP?

A National Resilience Task Force, supported by the U.S. Department of Defense (Northern Command and the National Guard), the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Energy could undertake a mitigation strategy to protect the U.S. critical infrastructure from effects of an EMP. This effort could include the following actions:

• Protect electronic equipment by enclosing sensitive electronics in grounded conductive housings and by adding EMP surge arresters to generators, transformers, motors, and critical electronic equipment.
• Install neutral ground blockers on transformers in substations to prevent ground-induced currents from entering the transformers.
• Install EMP-protected microgrids with on-site power generation at critical infrastructure facilities.
• Develop EMP-resistant electronics, such as optical computing and carbon nanotube memory, that are less susceptible to an EMP attack.
• Include EMP-attack planning scenarios in emergency preparedness training. By planning for the consequences of an EMP attack, communities could develop plans and measures to maintain essential services.

EMP Surge Arresters for Current and Voltage Spikes

The normal current flowing through medium-voltage lines ranges from 200 to 350 amps. Electric fields from EMP weapons can induce up to 5,000 amps of additional current. The voltage spike associated with the induced current is estimated to be about 300,000 volts. Transformers in sub-transmission and distribution substations are typically insulated to 150,000 volts. As such, the voltage spike would likely breach the insulation and disablee transformers.

Fortunately, cost-effective EMP surge arresters can be installed to prevent the failure of tens of thousands of transformers, generators, and motors by redirecting the voltage spike from the power lines to the ground before it can damage the equipment. Medium-voltage Ultra Fast Surge Arrestors cost about $7,000 per unit. An EMP surge arrester would be needed for each of the three phases of the transmission system, plus the ground connection for the transformer. To protect both the primary and secondary sides of the transformer, up to seven EMP surge arresters would be needed. Surge arrestors can be installed in parallel with lightning surge arresters by electricians certified for medium-voltage work. The estimated installed cost for medium-voltage EMP surge arresters is less than $80,000o protect transformers that cost between $3 million and $10 million.

Shielding From a Radiated Electric Field

In addition to creating induced current and voltage spike on power lines, an EMP can directly affect sensitive computer chips in control electronics. For this reason, CenterPoint Energy in Houston, Texas, has redesigned its substation control houses and merging unit cabinets to place sensitive electronics inside EMP-shielded cabinets, which can protect electronics from a high-altitude EMP event.

As part of the new design, CenterPoint Energy has moved the medium-voltage circuits out of control houses into substation yards. By moving the medium-voltage circuits out of the control house, CenterPoint Energy hopes to reduce injuries and fatalities due to arcing.

Surge Arresters, Shielded Relays, and Neutral Ground Blockers

About 4.178 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electrical power flow through 79,000 substations to end-user electrical equipment each year.

If the average substation has three transformers, the installed medium-voltage surge arresters, shielded digital relays, and neutral ground blockers would cost about $4 million per substation. The total cost to protect the entire grid would be $301 billion. The amortized monthly cost of the installed equipment divided by the power flowing through the substation each month is $0.006 per kWh.

Protecting Consumer Electronics

For the grid to work properly, it needs to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity to electrical equipment that uses that electricity. If an EMP suddenly damages equipment that uses electricity, then the demand for electricity collapses, and so does the grid.

The Energy Information Administration grouped users of electricity into four types: residential users, commercial users, industrial users, and transportation. Low-voltage EMP surge suppressors can protect most of the residential appliances, commercial electronics, and industrial control systems for about $400 per unit.

Residential Users

Most residential users want to protect high-value appliances such as refrigerators, electric ranges, water heaters, heating and air conditioning systems, cellular, internet, and satellite communications equipment, and computers. EMP surge suppressors will protect these appliances and are most effective when placed next to the appliance to be protected.

Consumer appliances such as refrigerators, heat pumps, and electric ranges also contain control boards. With the high volume of appliance manufacturing, the cost of enclosing the control board in a conductive casing could be a few dollars per appliance. (Shielding cost is unique to each appliance and is not reflected in this cost analysis.)

Financing four residential appliance surge suppressors over a 20-year lifetime, based on typical home electricity usage, might cost a homeowner an additional $11.46 per month, or about an 8% greater electricity bill.

Commercial Users

The Energy Information Administration defines five uses of electricity in the commercial sector: computers and office equipment (combined), refrigeration, space cooling, lighting, and ventilation. Low-voltage surge suppressors can protect each of these types of equipment. EMP surge suppressors could be amortized through the dollar per square foot rental cost paid by tenants. EMP surge protection for computers and office equipment could be purchased directly by tenants.

Industrial Users

The “Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey” by the Energy Information Administration states that the industrial sector uses electricity for chemical processing, petroleum refining, metals, food, and paper processing. These facilities can contain hundreds of programmable logic controllers, actuators, pumps, valves, transformers, and motor drives. EMP surge suppressors and conductive shielding can protect the control electronics for these industrial processes.

Next Steps for Protecting Critical Infrastructure

The electrical distribution grids are regulated by public utility commissions (PUCs) in each state. To protect the nation’s infrastructure, Congress can enact legislation that includes EMP as part of an all-hazard threat mitigation by which utility mitigation costs are recovered through rate relief across all fifty states. Such legislation would provide clear guidance to public utility commissioners in each state regarding cost recovery for EMP protection. In addition, Congress can provide incentives for manufacturers to include EMP surge arresters and electromagnetic shielding in appliances to protect control boards.

Congress could encourage consumers and owners of critical infrastructure to protect their appliances and electronics from electromagnetic threats by enacting legislation that provides tax credits for installing electromagnetic shielding and EMP surge protection.

To ensure the continuity of the economy, federal legislation should focus on electromagnetic protection for drinking water facilities, wastewater plants, telecommunication sites, credit card and bank transaction clearing centers, hospitals, first responders, airports, seaports, and data centers.

With recent advances in electromagnetic protection technology, there are now cost-effective solutions that can be implemented immediately to protect the economy. It is high time to put this electromagnetic pulse protection in place.

Disclaimer: This information is for general knowledge and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute security or military advice. It is important to note that specific threat levels and the effectiveness of potential mitigation measures are complex and constantly evolving. For the most up-to-date information and assessments, consult official sources, such as government reports and analyses from reputable defense and security organizations.

Contributing authors:

David Winks is a senior advisor for Advanced Technology. He currently serves as a subject matter expert for the Foundation for Infrastructure Resilience and as part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Resilient Power Working Group. He has been a subject matter expert in the U.S. Department of Defense’s Electromagnetic Defense Task Force and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation EMP Task Force. He is an author and editor of the book Powering Through – Building Critical Infrastructure Resilience, author of the report Protecting the U.S. Electric Grid Communications from EMP, and contributor to the DHS Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency report Resilient Power Best Practices for Critical Facilities and Sites. Currently working on advanced data centers using immersion cooling for secure environments, David has developed cyber defense architectures utilizing binary hardening, software-defined perimeters, zero-trust access, artificial intelligence, automated orchestration, and restoral for information and operational technology networks. His work includes EMP-shielded natural gas turbines, fuel cells, Stirling engines, solar thermal systems, wind, geothermal, and hydropower generation. He is a co-inventor of a patented, rugged, ground-conformal solar thermal system. David has a degree in physics (cum laude) with additional coursework in electrical and mechanical engineering.

Steve Chill is a retired Marine with decades of security experience in domestic and overseas environments. He has executed or created U.S. Department of Defense service policy for the security of special weapons, ships, and bases of all types and units ranging in size from combatant commands down to the individual Marine. He was recently an author and editor of both Joint Base San Antonio’s guide titled Domestic Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations and InfraGard’s Powering Through: Building Critical Infrastructure Resilience.

Frederick Ferrer is a national intelligence professional, homeland security expert, and educator. A 20-year military intelligence veteran who worked in the upper echelons of the U.S. intelligence community before retiring and returning to his home state to complete a Ph.D. in American history with minors in Russian and European history. Mr. Ferrer’s last posting was at the Idaho National Lab’s National Security Division. He held top secret security clearances across a half dozen agencies over four decades. Mr. Ferrer currently teaches topics like counterintelligence and cyber- and anti-terrorism for various universities across the nation.

Mike Swearingen is a retired electric cooperative power systems engineer with 20+ years experience. He has worked in every aspect of power systems operation, including control systems, protection systems, transmission design, substation design, distribution design, and NERC compliance, as well as regulatory matters. He represented his cooperative as a member of the Transmission Working Group, Market Operations and Policy Committee, and Market Working Group at the Southwest Power Pool. He served as an analyst and independent merit reviewer on several projects at the Department of Energy, was a technical advisor for the National Electric Energy Testing Research and Applications Center and is an IEEE senior member.

Rob Hartwell is a native of Alexandria, Virginia, and former congressional chief of staff to Reps. Dick Schulze and Nick Smith. Rob is currently vice president of public affairs for the Foundation for Infrastructure Resilience and past chairman of the National Disaster Resilience Council Public Policy Working Group and educates the U.S. Congress on electric grid security, critical infrastructure security, and electromagnetic pulse and solar storm issues.

Steve Cohan is a subject matter expert in areas of law enforcement, cybersecurity, and communications and has held a variety of C-suite positions including an officer in the U.S. Coast Guard; leadership roles in law enforcement, public safety communications, and emergency management; and as the CEO of an IT and cybersecurity company. Mr. Cohan has been a noted speaker on emergency management, national security, and IT and cybersecurity, as well as a trainer in those subject matter areas. Mr. Cohan is also the director of a communications and intelligence (open source and human) nonprofit providing data to subscribed members. Mr. Cohan has worked with senior-level government leaders in various administrations as well as Congress in various initiatives and pursuits.

Andrew R. Scott has managed and conducted geological research and exploration programs for private, governmental, and academic entities. He has received awards for his research efforts, presented lectures and short courses worldwide, and served as both a distinguished lecturer and keynote speaker. Andrew also served as president of the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Prior to starting Altuda Energy Corporation, he worked at the Bureau of Economic Geology, the University of Texas at Austin, where he served as program director of domestic energy research. For the past ten years, he has independently been researching the science behind EMP and ground-based, midcourse defense threats to critical infrastructure and how society may respond to a grid-down scenario.